Damascus during winter. Photo credit: http://maisonsyrienne.wordpress.com/
By Benny YP Siahaan[1]
Since the beginning of this year Western media have been averring that Bashar al-Assad days of Syria are counted. May be it is true at certain point. But the most recent developments make many have lost faith in the prediction of the unsustainability of the Assad regime. Instead, many are now worry about the future of peace in the Middle East in general. The recent resignation of Kofi Annan as peace envoy may become a stark example of this concern. He must have a strong reason to resign and do not want to be blamed for something that is doomed to fail.
Indeed, while Arab/Gulf states held a meeting in Jeddah on 12/8 to discuss Syria including possible replacement of Kofi Annan, Iran held a conference on Syria (8/8) attended by around 30 countries (reportedly Indonesia and India were in the participant list). This is another example the magnitude and the complexity of the Syrian conflict particularly on the terms that the conflict has become a proxy to a wider foreign interests.
Against this backdrop, I was tempted to use analogy for the situation in Syria borrowing the famous essay of the late Isaiah Berlin titled The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History. This essay was based on bestiary tale in a fragment attributed to the ancient Greek poet Archilochus which described that hedgehog is the animal that only knows one big thing, while fox is depicted as animal which knows many things.
In this essay Berlin developed further this story to divide world’s writers and thinkers into two categories: hedgehogs, which view the world through the single point of view and foxes that act based on wide experiences and consequently comprehend that the world cannot be viewed into a single notion.
Bashar Assad is hedgehog who only knows that sustainability of his power is of paramount importance than anything else. After 17 months, the conflict between the government and the rebel group has caused more than 20 thousand lives from both sides, mostly civilian.
Western and Gulf countries together with the rebel group are hedgehogs too. Their demand and determination for regime change makes them suits to hedgehog category. Past experiences showed us that regime change will only create further insecurity. Unseating Bashar Assad, surely will create more chaos and anarchy, just like with the removal of Saddam Hussein of Iraq.
As Manaf Tlass, a defected Assad General, called recently from his exile in Paris that national reconciliation is the best way to end this conflict. Indeed, if the current trend continues, Syria will end up like Lebanon civil war in the past. Hence, instead of removing, perhaps it is better to engage him. In the place of imposing more sanctions, it is wise to inspire him to be more benign and liberal through providing various incentives.
Russia, China and Iran can also be considered as hedgehog due to their views that the downfall of Bashar Assad would be a severe blow to their interests in the Middle East makes them persistent in supporting Assad regime at all cost.
Assessing the current situation, it seems now that the government and opposition forces have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest, and the rebel group cannot bring down the government. The opposition believes that they cannot topple the regime without outside intervention. The same goes to Bashar regime that they would not have stood until this present day without foreign intervention.
In this regard, continuing to arm both sides (the government and rebel group) will never serve their goals but compounded the situation. In fact, theoretically and empirically, stalemate situations in the past, might bring the warring parties to the table for negotiation. In this regard, there is a need to make a bold move from the concerned parties outside Syria to coerce the Government and the rebel group to sit and negotiate for the peaceful future of Syria and continue the democratization process which was halted due to considerable foreign interventions.
In this light, a type of national reconciliation inspired from the Taif Agreement (1989), which ended decades-long civil war in Lebanon, is worth trying. For example, it may include, among others, a political accommodation of the demographic reality particularly on the shift from Alawit minority rule to Sunni majority rule amicably and democratically.
Indeed, it too sad to see from the media that too many lives were taken and the beautiful cities of Damascus and Aleppo are being ruined due to civil war. In this regard, I concur with the view that we cannot afford further more war in the region especially in Syria since it may have a potential to escalate to a wider open conflict particularly between Iran versus the US (and its allies) which in turn will truly threaten world peace.
Taking everything into account, examples in the past and present have shown us that conflicts in the Middle East are very delicate and complex. Hence, hedgehogs’ views for solution will never prevail in this region.
Instead, leadership, experience, creative and bold thinking of the foxes are badly needed if we were serious to end the civil-war in Syria. Perhaps Indonesia may offer to a play role in this. The recent example of effectively calming down the discord over the South China Sea in ASEAN context is worth noting experience and creativity.
Jakarta, 12 August 2012
[1]The writer is an alumnus of Tsukuba University in Japan and was stationed in Damascus, Syria in 1998-2002.
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